Scenarios Thinking:  Zoology 955

Steve Carpenter, srcarpen@wisc.edu

Center for Limnology meeting room, 0955-1150 Wednesdays

Spring Semester 2007

Course web page: http://limnology.wisc.edu/courses/zoo955/spring2007/index.html

 

Assigned readings available through the Academics tab in MyUW

 

Date

Topic

Assigned Reading

Notes

 

 

 

 

24 Jan

Organizational meeting

Kahane 1999, Norgaard 2007

Four Things about the Future

How to Analyze a SES

Complex Problems

 

 

 

 

31 Jan

No class

 

 

3 Feb

(Saturday)

FOLW meeting

0900 - 1130

Mazzuchelli Center,

Edgewood College

 

FOLW = Friends of Lake Wingra, a neighborhood organization of people interested in the lake; see http://lakewingra.org/

7 Feb

Reflection on FOLW meeting; characterize the system to be studied

Scearce et al. 2004

Systems Analysis team

Systems Analysis Diagrams (pdf)

 

 

 

 

14 Feb

Limits of Prediction

Pielke et al. 2000

Student-organized presentation and discussion

Limits of Prediction

 

 

 

 

21 Feb

Case studies of regional scenarios

Peterson et al. 2003

Student-organized presentation and discussion

 

 

 

 

 

28 Feb

No class on Wednesday this week; note the Scenarios Workshop is on Friday of this week

 

 

2 March

Scenarios Workshop 1:30 to 5 pm, Memorial Union (see "Today in the Union" for room assignment)

 

Workshop team.  Scenarios initial draft team and Scenarios update and revision teams serve as recorders and reporters

Utopia and Dystopia Headlines

Wildcard Headlines

Wingra Workshop Agenda

Wingra Scenario Workshop Presentation 

 

 

 

 

7 Mar

Followup on Scenarios workshop:  synthesis, next steps

 

 Wingra Workshop Notes

 

 

 

 

14 Mar

No class

 

 

 

 

 

21 Mar

Approaches:  International Scenarios

Alcamo 2001, Raskin et al. 2005

Student-organized presentation and discussion

 

 

 

 

28 Mar

Internal review of draft scenarios

 

Scenarios initial draft team

 

 

 

 

SPRING

BREAK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11 Apr

No Class

 

 

 

 

 

 

18 Apr

Stakeholder feedback on scenarios

 

Feedback team members will gather feedback by meeting with individuals or small groups PRIOR to 18 April. 

Future of Lake Wingra Outline (pdf)

Feedback Summary Report (rtf)

 

 

 

 

25 Apr

SRES scenarios

IPCC 2000

Student-organized presentations and discussion

 

 

 

 

2 May

MA scenarios

Alcamo et al. 2006, Carpenter et al. 2006, Cork et al. 2006

Student-organized presentations and discussion

 

 

 

 

9 May

Presentation and discussion of second-round scenarios

 

Scenarios update and revision  team.

Lake Wingra Final Presentation (pdf of presentation)

Lake Wingra Final Presentation (PowerPoint)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assigned Readings

 

Alcamo, J. 2001.  Scenarios as Tools for International Environmental Assessments.  European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark.

 

Alcamo, J., D. van Vuuren, C. Ringler, W. Cramer, T. Masui, J. Alder and K. Schulze.  2006.  Changes in nature's balance sheet: Model-based estimates of future worldwide ecosystem services.  Ecology and Society 11 [online].  URL:  http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art19

 

Carpenter, S.R., E.M. Bennett and G.D. Peterson.  2006.  Scenarios for ecosystem services:  an overview.  Ecology and Society 11 [ online].  URL:  http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29

 

Cork, S.J., G.D. Peterson, E.M. Bennett, G. Petschel-Held and M. Zurek.  2006.  Synthesis of the storylines.  Ecology and Society 11 [online].  URL:  http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art11

 

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).  2000.  Emissions Scenarios:  Summary for Policy Makers. Pp 3-12 in N. Nakicenovic (ed.), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.  Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England.

 

Kahane, A.  1999.  Changing the Winds.  Whole Earth Review, Spring 1999.  Available on the internet.

 

Norgaard, R.B.  2007.  Finding hope in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.  Typescript, Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley. 

 

Peterson, G.D., G.S. Cumming and S.R. Carpenter.  2003.  Scenario planning:  A tool for conservation in an uncertain world.  Conservation Biology 17:  358-366.

 

Pielke, R.A. Jr., D. Sarewitz and R. Byerly Jr.  2000.  Decision making and the future of nature:  Understanding and using predictions.  Pp. 361-387 in D. Sarewitz, R.A. Pielke Jr., and R. Byerly Jr. (eds.), Prediction:  Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature.  Island Press, Washington, D.C.

 

Raskin, P., F. Monks, T. Ribeiro, D. Van Vuuren and M. Zurek.  2005.  Global scenarios in historical perspective.  Pp. 35-43 in Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Ecosystems and Human Well-Being:  Scenarios.  Island Press, Washington, D.C.

 

Scearce, D., K. Fulton and the Global Business Network Community.  2004.  What if?  The art of scenario thinking for nonprofits.  Global Business Network.  Available on the internet.

 

Student Teams

(each student is on one "Review team" and one "Wingra team")

 

Review teams and red-letter dates:

 

Limits of Prediction for Environmental Planning and Assessment -- 14 Feb

 

Regional Scenarios:  Comparison of Case Studies -- 21 Feb

 

Approaches for International Scenarios -- 21 March

 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- 25 April

 

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment -- 2 May

 

 

Wingra Teams and red-letter dates:

 

Systems Analysis team -- 7 Feb

 

Workshop team -- 28 Feb

 

Scenario initial draft team -- 28 March

 

Feedback team -- 18 April

 

Scenario update and revision team -- 9 May